MUMBAI: In an eventful week ahead, stock markets are bracing for volatility ahead of the RBI’s interest rate decision and upcoming US inflation data releases.
Markers are waitibg for the impact of the deveiopments that took place in the past few weeks. Analysts say that tariff-related uncertainties, following recent moves by US President Donald Trump to impose worldwide tariffs, are fuelling fears of a full-blown trade war that could hamper global trade and economic growth.
The markets saw equity benchmarks slump on Friday amid an across-the-board sell-off, tracking weak global markets and intensifying concerns over the impact of US tariffs. In the US, equity markets tumbled nearly 6 per cent on Friday, marking the worst week for stocks since 2020, while China’s Consumer Price Index data for March and the UK’s GDP data are also on the calendar this week.
Domestically, attention is focused on the RBI’s upcoming interest rate decision and the release of India’s industrial and manufacturing production data. Analysts expect further market turbulence as investors weigh the impact of reciprocal tariffs, with some speculating that additional sector-specific tariffs may be announced in the coming days.
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, US inflation figures, which will be released alongside the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, are key to understanding the potential impact on the US economy.
All eyes on MPC outcome
Similarly, Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that the RBI’s monetary policy outcome on 9th April is highly anticipated, with the market expecting another 25 bps rate cut. The Q4 FY25 earnings season is set to kick off with TCS results on 10th April, adding to the week’s significance.
Market experts also caution that investor sentiment is likely to be affected by the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend, and crude oil prices.
The recent steep reciprocal tariffs – comprising a 10 per cent baseline tariff on all imports, a 25 per cent tariff on all automobile imports, and additional steep tariffs on several other countries – have raised concerns that the US could face rising inflation and even stagflation. This uncertainty has triggered massive selling in the US markets, where indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each lost above 10 per cent in two days.
As markets remain closed on Thursday in observance of Shri Mahavir Jayanti, all eyes will be on the unfolding data and policy announcements that are expected to shape market trends in the near term.
