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Indices open subdued on global cues and mounting global tensions

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Sensex opened at 82,550, dipping by 9.80 points or 0.01%

MUMBAI: Indices saw a subdued start to trading on Tuesday, September 3, as tepid Asian markets tempered early momentum.

The BSE Sensex opened at 82,550, dipping by 9.80 points or 0.01 per cent, while the Nifty 50 edged up by 0.04 per cent to 25,288.70.

Broader indices reflected a mixed trend. The Bank Nifty index began the day slightly lower, dropping 56 points or 0.11 per cent to 51,383.25.

Top gainers in the Nifty 50 included Shriram Finance, Hindalco, ITC, Sun Pharma, and ONGC.

On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, and Infosys were among the major laggards.

Global markets experienced a slight decline on Monday as investors geared up for a week heavy with economic data, culminating in the U.S. jobs report. This report is anticipated to influence whether the expected Federal Reserve rate cut will be moderate or more significant.

Chinese manufacturing activity

In Asia, survey data released on Saturday revealed that Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while Monday’s data showed continued struggles for euro zone factories.

Political uncertainty in Europe was further heightened by wins for populist parties in German state elections. A holiday in the U.S. and Canada led to thin trading volumes.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index slipped by 0.21 per cent after reaching a record high on Friday.

Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE 100 fell by 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively.

Chinese stocks dropped 1.7 per cent, driven by losses in the real estate sector following a survey indicating slower home price growth.

Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 index were down 0.1%, while those for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 remained flat.

Asia-Pacific region

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were mostly higher on Tuesday as investors processed South Korea’s August inflation data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, down from July’s 2.6% and in line with expectations.

South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.17%, with the Kosdaq advancing by 0.02%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.18% in early trade, while the broader Topix index gained 0.38%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined by 0.39%, and futures for mainland China’s CSI 300 remained nearly flat at 3,267.5, compared to its previous close of 3,265. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures were at 17,671, slightly below the previous close of 17,691.97.

Economic trouble in China

Traders are closely monitoring any further signs of economic trouble in China, particularly after data showed Chinese factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August.

The key event of the week will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, expected to show that the economy added 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July. Current market sentiment suggests a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is highly likely, with a 33% chance of a larger 50-basis point reduction, although this could change depending on Friday’s data.

Oil steady

Oil prices were relatively stable after recent declines. Brent crude held at $76.91 a barrel, down more than 5 per cent from a week earlier, though market signals suggest prices could rise due to increasing tensions in oil-producing regions.

Libya’s halt in oil production and exports, caused by internal conflicts over the central bank and oil revenue management, has led to a supply shortfall of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in global markets.

To counteract this, OPEC+ announced a phased increase in oil output starting in October. Despite this, concerns over Chinese demand, particularly due to the ongoing real estate crisis, are limiting gains in crude prices.

“We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session,” noted Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of Commodities at Mehta Equities.

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