RBI likely to delay rate cut due to unmet retail inflation target

June food inflation rose to 9.4 per cent

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to announce a rate cut in this calendar year, as the retail inflation has not fallen to its target level of 4 per cent, though it has remained below 6 per cent since September 2023.

Adding to the woes of the central bank, the consumer price index (CPI), a major factor determining the trajectory of retail inflation, has not yet been tamed yet.

Analysts believe that given the backdrop, the RBI will hesitate to implement a rate cut.   

Meanwhile, draining more money from consumers’ pockets, June food inflation rose to 9.4 per cent lifting the retail inflation rate to a four-month high of 5.08 per cent up from a revised 4.8 per cent in May.

The rise in food inflation in June was mainly attributed to the higher cost of vegetables, cereals and fruits.

Urban society bore the brunt of food inflation more at 9.5 per cent while it was 9.2 per cent for rural people.

Rural retail inflation climbed to 5.66 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the previous month.

Prolonged summer with heatwaves and delayed monsoon pushed vegetable prices up to 29.3 per cent in June up from 27.3 per cent in May, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit price rise.

The price of pulses rose 16.1 per cent, while the price rise in fruits accelerated to 7.15 per cent.

Spiralling freight charges due to the worsening war scenario, are likely to spur the non-food inflation which had eased for the seventeenth month and hit a record low of 2.3 per cent in June.

Retail inflation in half of the States was above the national average of 5.08 per cent, with Odisha topping the list at 7.2 per cent.

Incidentally, Kerala, Rajasthan, and Delhi recorded the lowest inflation at 2.2 per cent.