DUBAI: The latest semi-annual MENA Economic Update released by the World Bank projects a GDP growth of 3.3 per cent for the UAE in 2024, with an anticipated increase to 4.1 per cent in 2025.
The positive outlook signifies the resilience of the UAE economy, particularly in light of its ongoing diversification efforts beyond the oil sector.
Central to this growth narrative is the UAE’s leadership in real GDP per capita, projected to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2024 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2025. Such growth is largely attributed to robust developments within the non-oil sector, which has been a focal point of the UAE’s economic strategy.
While the forecast for the current account surplus indicates a decline from 9.2 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 7.5 per cent in 2024, the UAE is still expected to maintain significant fiscal surpluses, estimated at 4.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent of GDP for the years 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Rosy outlook for GCC
In the broader MENA context, economic growth is projected to reach 3.8 per cent in 2025. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are poised to strengthen their growth trajectory, with an increase from 1.9 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025. Conversely, growth among oil-importing nations is forecasted to decelerate, dropping from 3.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent in 2024.
The contrast highlights the divergent economic realities within the region, influenced by varying dependence on oil revenues and diverse economic structures.
Overall, the report underscores a cautiously optimistic view for the MENA region, projecting an incremental GDP growth from 1.8 per cent in 2023 to 2.2 per cent in 2024.
The anticipated growth in the GCC, particularly through the UAE, signals a broader recovery within the region, highlighting the critical role of economic diversification and investment in non-oil sectors as fundamental drivers of future prosperity.
As the UAE continues to navigate these dynamics, its economic resilience will be pivotal not only for its national growth but also for the stability and development of the wider MENA region.
